You might
have notice that I am not doing a regular play by play or update of any kind of
how the war with Iran is going. There is good reason for that. Firstly, the
misinformation coming out from all sides is relentless. From false claims, to
false media reports, to false AI images that are designed to cover for real
images, false intelligence reports, and more. Hence, seeking to keep a handle
on what is exactly happening is not very easy.
However, I
thought I would share a little about how I approach evaluating a situation like
this myself, because it might be helpful to some people out there, or at least
of interest to some. How do I keep a handle on what is happening, and generally
where the war is going?
Well, what I
do not do is take any news report at face value, in and of itself. Already many
reports from various wars have shown to be false. Remember reports in 2022 that
Russia was not very far away from running out of ammunition? Well here we are four
years later and they still have plenty of ammunition. Remember reports that
Ukraine was about to turn the tide of the war? Well, how many of those reports have
turned out well?
What I
seek to do is take in an aggregate of reports and then identify patterns. For
instance, last
week Trump was claiming the war was basically won, and would be done in a
couple of days. These reports were shared widely across social media, and many
people I know were sharing them. When you consider how quickly the conflict was
over in Venezuela, which took every single person by surprise, you can then
understand why so many people were quick to believe this.
But then this
week we see Trump is asking for nations to send reinforcements to the strait of
Hormuz,
NBC News,
“Trump
wants other countries to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That might not be so
easy.
U.S.
allies and rivals responded cautiously after President Donald Trump said they
should police the Strait of Hormuz, as Iranian threats to strike shipping on
the vital trade route continue to cause chaos in global markets.
“Many
countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the
Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships” to secure the shipping route, he
posted Saturday on Truth Social, listing China, France, Japan, South Korea, the
U.K. and “others” among the nations he hoped would provide support.”[1]
Financial
Review,
“Trump
calls for help from allies, China to open besieged oil route.
US
President Donald Trump has stepped up calls to reopen the vital Strait of
Hormuz, saying warships would “hopefully” be sent to the area near Iran’s coast
to help commercial vessels sail through safely.
His
comments on Truth Social – which didn’t provide a timeline – came hours after
he ordered a strike on military sites on Kharg Island, from which Iran exports
almost all its oil, upping the ante in a Middle East war that’s raged for more
than two weeks and shows little sign of easing…
…Many
Countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the
Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships, in conjunction with the United States
of America, to keep the Strait open and safe,” he wrote in his latest post. He
gave little detail beyond saying he hoped China, France, Japan, South Korea and
the UK would also send warships.”[2]
This call for
reinforcements does not fit with the idea that the war is basically won. Nor does
the fact that allies are rejecting calls, at this moment, to get involved,
“Australia
has ruled out sending ships to the Middle East to help protect vessels from
Iranian attacks while travelling through the Strait of Hormuz.
It
comes after US President Donald Trump called on several other countries to send
ships to help open the critical waterway to ease the global oil supply
disruptions brought on by his war in Iran.
Australia
wasn’t listed in Mr Trump’s call to arms on social media, but countries
reportedly considering helping include the UK, Japan, China and South Korea.
Though, none have publicly announced they would deploy assets.”[3]
Many
Australians are very aware that historically Australia has gone out of its way
to get involved in any conflict in which the USA has called for help. But this
time they seem much more reticent. Australia has sent limited air defenses, but
not Navy assets. To be fair they say we have not been asked to send Navy assets. But Australia has
often in the passed offered much higher involvement than this willingly.
Then there is
the fact that over a week ago Trump said that ships going through the Straight
of Hormuz would be protected, but it appears that has not occurred. This call
for reinforcements lends credence to the idea that this has not occurred, as do
the skyrocketing fuel costs. These are the sorts patterns you can observe which
indicate this war is not going as well is being claimed by some, including
Donald himself.
Now, it must
be stated that exactly what is occurring on the ground in unclear. There is a
lockdown on news coming out of Israel, and various Gulf States, in all those
countries it is illegal to show footage of what is happening. The USA is
keeping tight lipped about their actual force composition and state of their forces, which is
very normal for a nation to do in a time of conflict. And Iran is isolated from
much of the world, so even though it appears more reports are coming out of
there, it is limited what we see in the western nations from the media and even
alternative media.
All you can really do is follow patterns, to some degree. But the fog of war is real,
and we are seeing it in large effect. This is why you don’t really see me doing
any kind of up to date play by play of the war. Because a lot of what we see is
misinformation anyway.
However, the
desire of the US for help containing the situation indicates that this war is a
much harder one than they expected or prepared for. This indicates things are
not going well. I suspect we all need to prepare for this war to drag on, as it
appears now to be a war of attrition, and we have seen how long those can go
on.
List of
References
[1] Freddie
Clayton, 2025, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-wants-other-countries-to-help-reopen-the-strait-of-hormuz-that-might-not-be-so-easy/ar-AA1YFRIb?ocid=BingNewsSerp
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