How To Have Assurance of Salvation

 

I have been meditating on this topic for a while, because this is a constant thing on the mind of some Christians and I have had a few ask me about this recently. Some Christians really struggle with having assurance in their faith. I especially see this come up in the context of the Calvinist and Arminian debate.

A common question the Calvinist will ask the Arminian is this, “If you can lose your salvation, how can you have any assurance? I believe if I could lose it I would.” This is a question I have been asked many, many times. The Calvinist will often find assurance in the idea that they were chosen before the foundation of the world, and therefore their assurance is out of their hands. The idea that you can lose your salvation is anathema to them, and does not fit in with this divine plan. I simply answer by saying, you don’t look at yourself, you look to Jesus, your hope is in him not yourself.

The Arminian on the other hand can simply ask the Calvinist this one question, “How do you know you are among the elect who were chosen before the foundation of the world?” If the Arminian’s assurance is potentially rocked by the idea that they can lose their salvation, then the Calvinist’s assurance is potentially rocked by not knowing if they are truly among the elect. I simply answer this one also by saying, you don’t look at yourself, you look to Jesus, your hope is in him not yourself. What is interesting is that both theological systems fall into different versions of the same kind of problem, that is created by their system’s internal claims.

So, can Christians never have assurance? Of course not. Assurance is not only biblical, the Bible clearly outlines how we can have assurance that we have eternal life. Martin Luther himself notes this in his commentary on Galatians,

“St. Augustine observed that "every man is certain of his faith, if he has faith." This the Romanists deny. "God forbid," they exclaim piously, "that I should ever be so arrogant as to think that I stand in grace, that I am holy, or that I have the Holy Ghost." We ought to feel sure that we stand in the grace of God, not in view of our own worthiness, but through the good services of Christ. As certain as we are that Christ pleases God, so sure ought we to be that we also please God, because Christ is in us. And although we daily offend God by our sins, yet as often as we sin, God's mercy bends over us. Therefore sin cannot get us to doubt the grace of God. Our certainty is of Christ, that mighty Hero who overcame the Law, sin, death, and all evils. So long as He sits at the right hand of God to intercede for us, we have nothing to fear from the anger of God.

This inner assurance of the grace of God is accompanied by outward indications such as gladly to hear, preach, praise, and to confess Christ, to do one's duty in the station in which God has placed us, to aid the needy, and to comfort the sorrowing. These are the affidavits of the Holy Spirit testifying to our favorable standing with God.

If we could be fully persuaded that we are in the good grace of God, that our sins are forgiven, that we have the Spirit of Christ, that we are the beloved children of God, we would be ever so happy and grateful to God. But because we often feel fear and doubt we cannot come to that happy certainty.

Train your conscience to believe that God approves of you. Fight it out with doubt. Gain assurance through the Word of God. Say: "I am all right with God. I have the Holy Ghost. Christ, in whom I do believe, makes me worthy. I gladly hear, read, sing, and write of Him. I would like nothing better than that Christ's Gospel be known throughout the world and that many, many be brought to faith in Him."[1]

Luther encourages Christians to train their “conscience to believe that God approves of you.” I want to show you how to do this biblically in this short piece. Hopefully, this will help many people fight the doubt about their standing before God, and recognize that you can have assurance. My argument it is neither dependent on whether you hold to an Arminian or Calvinist perspective, it is entirely dependent on whether your faith is in Christ and his word. And applying what his word says about this exact issue.

Turn with me to 1 John 5. In verse 13 John says this, “13 I write these things to you who believe in the name of the Son of God, that you may know that you have eternal life.” The Apostle John tells us that he wrote this letter to help the Christians under his tutelage have assurance of their salvation. Hence, we now know conclusively that we can have assurance of eternal life. So, what is John’s argument? Let’s summarize it.

First, that we should walk in the light. By that John means that you walk in openness with God and in fellowship with other believers, and you confess your sins,

“5 This is the message we have heard from him and proclaim to you, that God is light, and in him is no darkness at all. 6 If we say we have fellowship with him while we walk in darkness, we lie and do not practice the truth. 7 But if we walk in the light, as he is in the light, we have fellowship with one another, and the blood of Jesus his Son cleanses us from all sin. 8 If we say we have no sin, we deceive ourselves, and the truth is not in us. 9 If we confess our sins, he is faithful and just to forgive us our sins and to cleanse us from all unrighteousness. 10 If we say we have not sinned, we make him a liar, and his word is not in us” (1 John 1:5-10).

Verse 9 is especially important here. Note what the verse does not say, it does not say, if you confess your sins to God. It simply says, “If we confess our sins…”. The context here is walking in fellowship with God and others, in fact verse 7 is a parallelism with verse 9. Hence, John’s point is that if we walk in confession of sins, both to God and to fellow believers, then you can have assurance that your sins are forgiven.

Secondly, that we do abstain from sin and keep his commands. This one might make some people anxious, because we all sin. However, read carefully what John says here,

“1 My little children, I am writing these things to you so that you may not sin. But if anyone does sin, we have an advocate with the Father, Jesus Christ the righteous. 2 He is the propitiation for our sins, and not for ours only but also for the sins of the whole world. 3 And by this we know that we have come to know him, if we keep his commandments. 4 Whoever says “I know him” but does not keep his commandments is a liar, and the truth is not in him, 5 but whoever keeps his word, in him truly the love of God is perfected. By this we may know that we are in him: 6 whoever says he abides in him ought to walk in the same way in which he walked” (1 John 2:1-6).

The trajectory of the Christian life is a battle against sin. John writes so he can encourage those under his authority to avoid sin. But he also recognizes that we will sin and encourages us that the Son of God himself is advocating on our behalf. So, John is not talking about perfection here, he is talking about the desire in the true believer to be free of sin.

If you are truly a believer the commands of Jesus Christ are precious to you, and will dominate how you live your life. So, if Jesus’ commands are precious to you, and you have confessed your sins, you can have assurance.

Thirdly, you love your brethren. As John says,

“7 Beloved, I am writing you no new commandment, but an old commandment that you had from the beginning. The old commandment is the word that you have heard. 8 At the same time, it is a new commandment that I am writing to you, which is true in him and in you, because the darkness is passing away and the true light is already shining. 9 Whoever says he is in the light and hates his brother is still in darkness. 10 Whoever loves his brother abides in the light, and in him there is no cause for stumbling. 11 But whoever hates his brother is in the darkness and walks in the darkness, and does not know where he is going, because the darkness has blinded his eyes” (1 John 2:7-11).

Love for each other in the Church, even in disagreement, is evidence of the Holy Spirit at work in your life. John comes back to this in 1 John 3:11-24. If you have confessed your sins, love the commands of Jesus and love your brothers and sisters in the faith you can have assurance.

Fourthly, you are not allied with the world,

“15 Do not love the world or the things in the world. If anyone loves the world, the love of the Father is not in him. 16 For all that is in the world—the desires of the flesh and the desires of the eyes and pride of life—is not from the Father but is from the world. 17 And the world is passing away along with its desires, but whoever does the will of God abides forever” (1 John 2:15-17).

If you have confessed your sins, love the commands of Jesus, love your brethren in Christ, and are not allied with the world, you can have assurance of your eternal life.

Fifthly, you do not deny Jesus is the Messiah,

“22 Who is the liar but he who denies that Jesus is the Christ? This is the antichrist, he who denies the Father and the Son. 23 No one who denies the Son has the Father. Whoever confesses the Son has the Father also. 24 Let what you heard from the beginning abide in you. If what you heard from the beginning abides in you, then you too will abide in the Son and in the Father. 25 And this is the promise that he made to us—eternal life” (1 John 2:22-25).

This is obviously key. You need to affirm that Jesus is the Lord and Messiah, and you need to align your life with that perspective. If you have confessed your sins, love the commands of Jesus, love the brethren and do not align with the world, and you affirm Jesus is the Lord and Messiah, you can have assurance.

Sixthly, you are a child of God and you know it,

“1 See what kind of love the Father has given to us, that we should be called children of God; and so we are. The reason why the world does not know us is that it did not know him. 2 Beloved, we are God's children now, and what we will be has not yet appeared; but we know that when he appears we shall be like him, because we shall see him as he is. 3 And everyone who thus hopes in him purifies himself as he is pure” (1 John 3:1-3).

If you have truly come to know Jesus and you trust in him, you will know inside yourself that you are a child of God. As Paul says in Romans 8 and Galatians 4, your heart will cry out “Abba, Father.” This is John’s way of saying the same thing. And if you truly have this hope you will seek to emulate your father by purifying yourself. Which is a process. As the rest of John 3 goes on to say, you will not make a practice of sinning. This means not that you will be sinless, but you will live a life of repentance that resists temptation rather than pursues a life of sin,

“9 No one born of God makes a practice of sinning, for God's seed abides in him; and he cannot keep on sinning, because he has been born of God. 10 By this it is evident who are the children of God, and who are the children of the devil: whoever does not practice righteousness is not of God, nor is the one who does not love his brother” (1 John 3:9-10).

“By this it is evident who are children of God…” John is adamant that we can have assurance. But that assurance is based on a cumulative case of the evidence that God is at work in your life. If you have confessed your sins, love the commands of Jesus, love the brethren and do not align with the world, and you affirm Jesus is the Lord and Messiah, and you want to be like your heavenly father, you can have assurance.

Seven, you know the spirit of evil when you see it,

“9 No one born of God makes a practice of sinning, for God's seed abides in him; and he cannot keep on sinning, because he has been born of God. 10 By this it is evident who are the children of God, and who are the children of the devil: whoever does not practice righteousness is not of God, nor is the one who does not love his brother” (1 John 4:4-6).

Part of knowing you are of God is that you know what is not of God. The writer of Hebrews makes this same point in Hebrews 6:11-14. Part of knowing you are on God’s team is being able “…to distinguish good from evil” (Heb. 6:14).

If you have confessed your sins, love the commands of Jesus, love the brethren and do not align with the world, you affirm Jesus is the Lord and Messiah, you want to be like your heavenly father, and you can distinguish good from evil, you can have assurance.

Eight, you love like God loves,

“7 Beloved, let us love one another, for love is from God, and whoever loves has been born of God and knows God. 8 Anyone who does not love does not know God, because God is love. 9 In this the love of God was made manifest among us, that God sent his only Son into the world, so that we might live through him. 10 In this is love, not that we have loved God but that he loved us and sent his Son to be the propitiation for our sins. 11 Beloved, if God so loved us, we also ought to love one another. 12 No one has ever seen God; if we love one another, God abides in us and his love is perfected in us. 13 By this we know that we abide in him and he in us, because he has given us of his Spirit. 14 And we have seen and testify that the Father has sent his Son to be the Savior of the world. 15 Whoever confesses that Jesus is the Son of God, God abides in him, and he in God” (1 John 4:7-15).

Of course, you will not do so perfectly, but remember we have the advocate, Jesus Christ, who is literally like our defense lawyer making our case before the throne of God our Father. If you have come to know God you will feel his love expanding in your life.

If you have confessed your sins, love the commands of Jesus, love the brethren and do not align with the world, and you affirm that Jesus is the Lord and Christ, and you want to be like your heavenly father, you can distinguish good from evil, and you love like God does, you can have assurance.

Nine, you love God, “1 Everyone who believes that Jesus is the Christ has been born of God, and everyone who loves the Father loves whoever has been born of him. 2 By this we know that we love the children of God, when we love God and obey his commandments” (1 John 5:1-2). To the unbeliever God’s commands will be interesting, but often hateful. To the believer they are like precious gold and taste like honey. Because we know they come from a heart of love for us. As a believer you will grow in this appreciation of the commands of God.

If you have confessed your sins, love the commands of Jesus, love the brethren and do not align with the world, and you affirm Jesus is the Lord and Messiah, and you want to be like your heavenly father, you can distinguish good from evil, you love like God does, and you love God and his commands, you can have assurance.

Ten, you just know, because God has testified to your heart, and you know that you know in a way that others cannot take from you,

“6 This is he who came by water and blood—Jesus Christ; not by the water only but by the water and the blood. And the Spirit is the one who testifies, because the Spirit is the truth. 7 For there are three that testify: 8 the Spirit and the water and the blood; and these three agree. 9 If we receive the testimony of men, the testimony of God is greater, for this is the testimony of God that he has borne concerning his Son. 10 Whoever believes in the Son of God has the testimony in himself” (1 John 5:6-10).

There is nothing anyone could say to me to make me believe God is not real, or that Jesus is not my Lord and Saviour. Why? Because the Spirit, the water and the blood testify to his work. The Spirit that has made me new, the water represents my new life in him, and the blood that has sprinkled my conscience. Boy that last one means so much when you think about how God settles our consciences and removes our burden of sin.

If you have truly come to know God you know what I am talking about. God makes us new and we know it. For the person with a soft conscience who is not saved, all their sins pile up in their hearts and minds. Why do you think so many people are in therapy or on medication to help them sleep?[2] But for the believer we know that God has forgiven us and he puts our spirit at rest. And we also know that he has been at work in our lives. We know it, we simply know it.

If you have confessed your sins, love the commands of Jesus, love the brethren and do not align with the world, and you affirm Jesus is the Lord and Christ, you want to be like your heavenly father, you can distinguish good from evil, you love like God does, you love God and his commands, and you know in your heart that he has changed you, then you can have assurance,

“13 I write these things to you who believe in the name of the Son of God, that you may know that you have eternal life. 14 And this is the confidence that we have toward him, that if we ask anything according to his will he hears us. 15 And if we know that he hears us in whatever we ask, we know that we have the requests that we have asked of him” (1 John 5:13-15).

And because of this we know we can confidently pray to him, seek him and know that he hears us.

The Bible does not teach us to find our assurance of faith in the idea of election. The Bible does not teach us that if we can lose our salvation we cannot have assurance. These are debates we will have as believers who read the Bible differently. But a whole book of the Bible was written to show how we can have assurance. I encourage you to meditate on the book of 1 John and pursue God, his Son and their commandments over all other things. Do this in faith and rest in the knowledge that if you have confessed your sins he is faithful and just to forgive your sins.

List of References

---

[1] Luther, Martin. Commentary on the Epistle to the Galatians (pp. 112-113). Kindle Edition.

[2] I am not saying those on medication are not saved. I am simply noting that a lot of people are struggling because they are not walking in forgiveness. Both Christians and non-Christians live like this.

Boots on the Ground

 

I want to address the boots of the ground issue.

There is serious misinformation being propagated at the moment, a lot of it by well meaning people, because uninformed people are being deliberately misinformed about the significance of boots on the ground.

There has been a claim going around since the start of the Iran war that this is not Iraq 2.0, because Trump has no intention of putting boots on the ground. Already this narrative has begun to shift, they are gearing up to put boots on the ground, because of what I will explain in this post.

Boots on the ground is what wins wars. I was in the infantry. I was simply a reservist, and I did not serve overseas, but I was trained in the Australian Defence Force. I am also a student of military history and strategy. Boots on the ground is what it takes to win wars. You don’t win them without them.

The infantry is the tip of the spear. Every other element of the military is simply made up of units designed to support the infantry so that it can do its job: that job is putting your boot on the neck of your enemy. Until your boot is on the neck of your enemy, and that can be taken literally, but also just means until you control his ground, you cannot win a war. You can get ceasefires, but not effective victories. This is because you need your men on the ground to plant your flag and claim your territory and enforce your will.

Many people online have been claiming that this is not a repeat of Iraq. People are saying that Trump is smarter than Bush, and that he is intending to win this war by simply using air strikes and economic pressure to force their leadership to surrender. This is why there were claims at the start that the war would last four days, then this became four weeks, because Iran has not surrendered, instead they have escalated. Anyone who believed this just does not understand how war works. You cannot win if you cannot march your men into your enemies territory and enforce your will.

Even Bush understood this. As much as Bush’s military efforts failed over time, he understood that you use planes, tanks, ships and everything you have, to provide support to your infantry to take the enemy's ground. This is how wars are won. It does not guarantee their success, of course, but it is only thing that gives you that chance. You need boots on the ground.

Sure, you can use auxiliaries. By that I mean you can use the fighters of other nations or tribal groups to be your infantry. There was talk of the Kurds, and other rebels being used in Iran. This was because the military higher ups knew that boots on the ground were always necessary. If the goal was to enforce their will on Iran. But even if you use auxiliaries, millennia of military history shows you still need your men to fight alongside these auxiliary troops, and especially to command and direct them so that they achieve your goals. After all, you are seeking to use them for your goals, not their goals, right?

This is why there have been reports that US and European commanders have been killed in Russia’s war with Europe in Ukraine (though they are disputed, of course), they have been sent there to make sure that the will of Europe and the US is achieved. Although, it appears for some time now that the US has diminished its role there. The point is though, you still need your own boots on the ground, even when another nation is doing your fighting for you. It is unavoidable. Look at Vietnam, first France and then the US relied heavily on native forces, but eventually they needed to bring in their own. This has happened again and again, though the numbers vary in different conflicts. And on those numbers, you always need boots on the ground more than you originally considered, especially if the enemy is resisting your proxies effectively. 

Hence, those who thought Trump was going to pull off some sort of standalone event, where he could defeat a country of nearly 90 million with air strikes and economic pressure, were simply being fed baloney. Every military strategist worth their salt knew it, as well. Which is why there is increasing pressure to put boots on the ground.

Air strikes can achieve you a stand off, like they did in June 2025 between Israel and Iran, but they cannot achieve you a total victory. Hence Trump’s options are:

-        End air strikes and claim victory, while having achieved basically nothing, as is what happened in June 2025.

-        Put boots on the ground.

-        Put puts on the ground to strengthen, bolster and direct proxies in the region, while claiming this is not technically boots on the ground, when it is exactly that. This would mean special forces, combat trainers, and some command experts to help direct ground operations.

Hence, the idea that Trump was going to achieve total victory without boots on the ground was always a lie, only believed by the militarily ignorant.

Venezuela

This is where someone will try to bring up Venezuela. Trump won that in day without boots on the ground, right?

No.

The US prepared the ground for years with military sanctions. They had intelligence assets on the ground buying off officials. Then they brought together a massive flotilla and the full force of the US Navy, Air Force and Army, to land Delta Force on the ground, to kidnap Maduro.

That is the definition of winning with boots on the ground.

Aircraft carriers, jets, tanks, helicopters, all of that awesome and fierce military might, exist as the support needed for the end of the spear, infantry, to do its job. Remember that Special Forces are light infantry. All those support elements can do more damage than any lone infantry soldier. But until your boot is on the neck of the enemy you cannot achieve total victory. Or, to put it another way, until he lays down his guns and your guys with boots on the ground control their territory, all you have is a stalemate (like in Korea).

Therefore, Trump will either have to stop and pretend it is a victory, which is possible, and we should hope for this. Or he will have to put a massive force on the ground, to achieve actual victory. Which is not guaranteed anyway, but this has not stopped the US and many countries before.

Hence, the “this is not Iraq 2.0” propaganda, was simply misinformation that was designed to get people to give their consent to something that will either be ineffective, or will turn into a new Vietnam or Iraq. And we know how ineffective those wars were at achieving US victory. Many decent people have believed that misinformation because they don't understand the importance of boots on the ground. 

Discipline Your Bodies Men

 

Discipline of the body and the mind.

Jesus walked all over Judea. He could only do this because he was fit.

Paul walked over much of the Roman Empire, survived beating after beating, even a stoning. He could only do this if he was physically fit. His writings show he was knowledgeable about sport and may have even fought wild beasts in the gladiator ring (though that passage is disputed). What is not disputed is the physical strength he needed to just do his basic role.

The most commended men in the Old and New Testament's were soldiers who were righteous (David, the Centurion in Matt. 8, and Cornelius in Acts 10). Why did they stand out? Because, soldiers with a faith in God, disciplined their body and mind.

The de-emphasis on physical strength to match spiritual strength, might go a long way to explaining some of the Church's issues today.

We now know and can measure it now, that obesity increases oestrogen generation in a man's body. It literally feminizes men. Literally. It can stunt the growth of a boy’s body, as well, if they are young and obese. Men who do not exercise, particularly their legs, also decline in testosterone at higher rates. Leg exercises increase testosterone production. Keeping in good shape helps keep testosterone production stay more stable as you age.

The Bible commands men to act like men and be strong (1 Cor. 16:13). Being overweight makes this biologically harder for men. Not every many needs to be a peak level athlete, either, but every man should work hard to keep himself in a good degree of health. You never know when you will need it.

As I like to say, "How strong should a man be? Well, how much does his wife weigh? Because he needs to be ready to carry her.” This also indicates that it is incumbent on women to watch their weight as well, because a wife is her husbands helper, and if he is going to carry her, she needs to do what she can to make this more possible.

But the point is men, letting yourself be given to being overweight is not good. It does not help you live as you are called to live. 

Iran War Thoughts

 

You might have notice that I am not doing a regular play by play or update of any kind of how the war with Iran is going. There is good reason for that. Firstly, the misinformation coming out from all sides is relentless. From false claims, to false media reports, to false AI images that are designed to cover for real images, false intelligence reports, and more. Hence, seeking to keep a handle on what is exactly happening is not very easy.

However, I thought I would share a little about how I approach evaluating a situation like this myself, because it might be helpful to some people out there, or at least of interest to some. How do I keep a handle on what is happening, and generally where the war is going?

Well, what I do not do is take any news report at face value, in and of itself. Already many reports from various wars have shown to be false. Remember reports in 2022 that Russia was not very far away from running out of ammunition? Well here we are four years later and they still have plenty of ammunition. Remember reports that Ukraine was about to turn the tide of the war? Well, how many of those reports have turned out well?

What I seek to do is take in an aggregate of reports and then identify patterns. For instance, last week Trump was claiming the war was basically won, and would be done in a couple of days. These reports were shared widely across social media, and many people I know were sharing them. When you consider how quickly the conflict was over in Venezuela, which took every single person by surprise, you can then understand why so many people were quick to believe this.

But then this week we see Trump is asking for nations to send reinforcements to the strait of Hormuz,

NBC News,

“Trump wants other countries to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That might not be so easy.

U.S. allies and rivals responded cautiously after President Donald Trump said they should police the Strait of Hormuz, as Iranian threats to strike shipping on the vital trade route continue to cause chaos in global markets.

“Many countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships” to secure the shipping route, he posted Saturday on Truth Social, listing China, France, Japan, South Korea, the U.K. and “others” among the nations he hoped would provide support.”[1]

Financial Review,

“Trump calls for help from allies, China to open besieged oil route.

US President Donald Trump has stepped up calls to reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz, saying warships would “hopefully” be sent to the area near Iran’s coast to help commercial vessels sail through safely.

His comments on Truth Social – which didn’t provide a timeline – came hours after he ordered a strike on military sites on Kharg Island, from which Iran exports almost all its oil, upping the ante in a Middle East war that’s raged for more than two weeks and shows little sign of easing…

…Many Countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe,” he wrote in his latest post. He gave little detail beyond saying he hoped China, France, Japan, South Korea and the UK would also send warships.”[2]

This call for reinforcements does not fit with the idea that the war is basically won. Nor does the fact that allies are rejecting calls, at this moment, to get involved,

“Australia has ruled out sending ships to the Middle East to help protect vessels from Iranian attacks while travelling through the Strait of Hormuz.

It comes after US President Donald Trump called on several other countries to send ships to help open the critical waterway to ease the global oil supply disruptions brought on by his war in Iran.

Australia wasn’t listed in Mr Trump’s call to arms on social media, but countries reportedly considering helping include the UK, Japan, China and South Korea. Though, none have publicly announced they would deploy assets.”[3]

Many Australians are very aware that historically Australia has gone out of its way to get involved in any conflict in which the USA has called for help. But this time they seem much more reticent. Australia has sent limited air defenses, but not Navy assets. To be fair they say we have not been asked to send Navy assets. But Australia has often in the passed offered much higher involvement than this willingly.

Then there is the fact that over a week ago Trump said that ships going through the Straight of Hormuz would be protected, but it appears that has not occurred. This call for reinforcements lends credence to the idea that this has not occurred, as do the skyrocketing fuel costs. These are the sorts patterns you can observe which indicate this war is not going as well is being claimed by some, including Donald himself.

Now, it must be stated that exactly what is occurring on the ground in unclear. There is a lockdown on news coming out of Israel, and various Gulf States, in all those countries it is illegal to show footage of what is happening. The USA is keeping tight lipped about their actual force composition and state of their forces, which is very normal for a nation to do in a time of conflict. And Iran is isolated from much of the world, so even though it appears more reports are coming out of there, it is limited what we see in the western nations from the media and even alternative media.

All you can really do is follow patterns, to some degree. But the fog of war is real, and we are seeing it in large effect. This is why you don’t really see me doing any kind of up to date play by play of the war. Because a lot of what we see is misinformation anyway.

However, the desire of the US for help containing the situation indicates that this war is a much harder one than they expected or prepared for. This indicates things are not going well. I suspect we all need to prepare for this war to drag on, as it appears now to be a war of attrition, and we have seen how long those can go on.

List of References

---

[1] Freddie Clayton, 2025, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-wants-other-countries-to-help-reopen-the-strait-of-hormuz-that-might-not-be-so-easy/ar-AA1YFRIb?ocid=BingNewsSerp

[2] Andrew Tillet, 2025, https://www.afr.com/world/middle-east/trump-calls-for-help-from-allies-china-to-open-besieged-oil-route-20260315-p5oajr

[3] Caitlyn Rintoul, 2025, https://thenightly.com.au/world/middle-east/catherine-king-matt-thistlethwaite-australia-rejects-naval-role-in-strait-of-hormuz-amid-iran-tanker-threats-c-21955744

God Is Not Done With Britain

 

It is customary for me in my writings to seek to inspire hope. Hope is important. Hope in the sense we use that word often in English means a wish about something that we want to happen. It is a fleeting feeling. But hope in the Bible is about a certainty of trust in God. We should have a certain hope that God is at work, and therefore, even when things look bleak in our world we know that is not the final world.

Here is a good example, from Caldron Pool,

“Recent data from the United Kingdom suggests a renewed interest in Christianity, reflected in rising Bible sales, increased church attendance, and shifting patterns of belief—particularly among younger adults.

According to NielsenIQ BookData, Bible sales in Britain increased by 19 percent last year, reaching their highest recorded level since tracking began in 1998.

Christian publisher SPCK Group reported that total Bible sales in the UK reached £6.3 million in the past year, more than double the figure recorded in 2019.

Sam Richardson, chief executive of SPCK, said the figures indicate “evidence of a significant cultural shift.”

He said: “The significant and sustained upward trend in Bible sales suggests that more and more people are investigating the Christian faith themselves and seeking to draw their own conclusions about its truth.”

Richardson said global developments, including the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, the rapid development of artificial intelligence, and growing mental health concerns, have led many people to reconsider questions of meaning and spirituality.

Survey data from YouGov comparing 2018 and 2024 indicates that the proportion of adults in Britain attending church at least once a month has risen from 8 percent to 12 percent.”[1]

I hear people black pill about Britain all the time. Probably some of the people who do this the worst are those who have fled Britian to come and enjoy the sunny beaches in Australia. They talk about how Britain is being overrun, run into the ground, and is not a good place to raise your kids anymore. But God has not given up on Britain, as this data shows and neither should we.

For all those who think Britain cannot come back from this situation, I encourage you to remember Alfred the Great. In his day it looked like England would come to an end before it had even really gotten off the ground. The Danes had overrun it, the Anglo-Saxon kingdoms were in a shambles. But it Alfred the Great took a remnant of the power of the English and restored the nation back to its primacy in its own lands. The rest is history.

Paganism might look like it runs supreme again. But God is not done with Britain, he is rising up a holy remnant,

“25 From you comes my praise in the great congregation;
    my vows I will perform before those who fear him.
26 The afflicted shall eat and be satisfied;
    those who seek him shall praise the Lord!
    May your hearts live forever!

27 All the ends of the earth shall remember
    and turn to the Lord,
and all the families of the nations
    shall worship before you.
28 For kingship belongs to the Lord,
    and he rules over the nations.”

Psalm 22:25-28

God does not forget those who were called by his name. Nor does he ignore those who call upon his name. England and Britain can be restored to their Christian glory once again. Perhaps today we are seeing the signs that it will happen in our day?

List of References

---

[1] https://www.caldronpool.com/p/something-is-stirring-in-britain

Is The Human Genome Failing?

 

In one of his latest books, The Frozen Gene, Vox Day makes some quite controversial but also well backed up claims about the human genome. According to Day it is degenerating, the human genome is actually failing. This goes against the general consensus of modern science and also the general consensus amongst popular culture. It is just assumed by virtually everybody that the human genome is evolving. Some believe we can even speed this evolution along and create the Superman that philosophers have dreamed of since the 19^th century. But this is not the case, as Vox argues,  

“The Prophet of the Genome

Yuval Noah Harari is not a geneticist. He is a historian, trained in medieval military history, who parlayed a talent for sweeping narrative into one of the most successful publishing careers of the century. Sapiens has sold over twenty-five million copies. Homo Deus sits on the bookshelves of virtually every tech executive in Silicon Valley. His ideas—about the "Cognitive Revolution," about humans as "algorithms," about the coming merger of biology and technology—have become the default framework through which the educated public understands human evolution and its future.

This influence would be unremarkable if Harari confined himself to history and philosophy, where narrative sweep is a virtue and quantitative precision is optional. But Harari does not confine himself. He makes specific, falsifiable claims about biology. And when those claims are subjected to the mathematical scrutiny he consistently avoids, they collapse.

The central promise of Homo Deus is that humanity stands on the threshold of self-directed evolution. Through genetic engineering, brain-computer interfaces, and AI integration, we will "upgrade" ourselves into something beyond human. The key passage bears examination:

"Iterate this procedure for a few generations, and you could easily end up with superhumans (or a creepy dystopia)."

This sentence contains a claim about how genetics works. Harari believes that genetic modifications can be "iterated"—that each generation builds upon the last, accumulating improvements the way software accumulates features across versions. Edit a child with enhanced genes; that child grows up and has children who inherit the enhancements; their children inherit even more; and so on, generation after generation, ascending toward godhood.

It is a beautiful vision. It is also biologically illiterate.

Harari treats genetics like software versioning. But genetics is not software. Genes do not copy perfectly from parent to child. They segregate, recombine, and dilute according to laws discovered by Gregor Mendel in the nineteenth century. Laws that Harari never mentions because, one suspects, he has never done the math.

Let us do the math he refused to do…”[1]

Vox then goes on to demonstrate that even if you genetically engineered superior human beings, within four generations their genetic advantage would be diluted, even if you selectively breed them with other genetically engineered human beings. We don’t have the power to fix superior genetics into the population as we would like, because it takes too many generations to fix a gene in a total population. Especially one as large as the human population is today. So, the idea of a genetically superior humans over taking the gene pool in our generation is just not possible,

“The Cognitive Revolution

That Cannot Repeat Harari’s futurism rests on a claim about the past: that the cognitive revolution of 70,000 years ago resulted from "a few small changes in the Sapiens DNA, and a slight rewiring of the Sapiens brain." If small genetic changes produced such dramatic results before, surely we can engineer similar changes now?

Set aside the question of whether the Cognitive Revolution actually occurred as Harari describes it. Grant him the premise. What would be required to repeat it?

If the Cognitive Revolution required one thousand beneficial genetic changes—a modest estimate for a transformation that allegedly produced language, abstract thought, and cumulative culture—then the fixation throughput math from earlier chapters applies.

Under ancestral conditions:

-        Available time: 70,000 years = 3,500 generations at 20 years per generation

-        Ancestral d ≈ 0.55: effective generations = 1,925

-        Maximum throughput: approximately 0.5 fixations per generation

-        Required rate: 1,000 / 1,925 = 0.52 fixations per generation

The numbers barely work. The Cognitive Revolution, if it occurred through accumulated beneficial mutations, operated at the ragged edge of what population genetics permits.

Under modern conditions:

-         d ≈ 0.015: effective generations per 1,000 years = 52

-        Time required for 1,000 fixations at 0.5 fixations per effective generation: 40,000 years minimum

-         But the Bernoulli Barrier makes parallel fixation self-defeating at any reasonable scale

We cannot engineer a second Cognitive Revolution because we no longer have the demographic conditions that made the first one possible. The door is closed. CRISPR cannot reopen it, because CRISPR edits individuals, not populations, and populations no longer experience the selective turnover that converts individual variation into population change. Harari promises a future that requires a past we have left behind.”[2]

But the situation is even worse that that. Not only will our manipulation of the gene pool not breed superhumans, the negative mutation load is increasing in the current human population. It is trending towards degeneration, and therefore failure,

“The Death of the Superman

We have spent the first half of this chapter demolishing Harari’s optimism. The genetic math does not support his vision. Enhancement edits dilute across generations. CRISPR cannot modify populations or species. The Cognitive Revolution cannot repeat under modern demographic conditions. The techno-futurist dream is exactly that—a dream, unsupported by the mathematics of inheritance.

But in demolishing Harari’s optimism, we have uncovered something far more disturbing.

The frozen gene pool is not merely frozen. It may be failing.

Recall the core insight of this book: selection requires differential reproduction, differential reproduction requires some individuals to fail to reproduce, and modern demographics have reduced reproductive failure to negligible levels. With d ≈ 0.015, natural selection has lost ninety-seven percent of its power compared to ancestral conditions. The gene pool is frozen because selection can no longer drive allele frequency change.

But there is an asymmetry we have not yet confronted.

Mutation continues.

Every human generation, every individual accumulates approximately seventy new mutations. These arise from DNA replication errors, oxidative damage, radiation, and other physical and chemical processes that do not care about demographic conditions. Of these seventy mutations, approximately fifty are deleterious—harmful to the organism in some way, whether dramatically or subtly.

Under ancestral conditions, this was not a problem. The same selective pressure that drove beneficial alleles to fixation also purged deleterious ones. Individuals with more mutations were more likely to die before reproducing or to have fewer offspring. Mutation and selection were in balance: new errors entered the population at approximately the same rate they were removed.

Under modern conditions, this balance is broken.

New mutations still enter at the rate of fifty per generation. But selection no longer removes them at that rate. With d ≈ 0.015, the mechanism that purged deleterious alleles is operating at three percent of its ancestral capacity.

The input is running. The filter is off.”[3]

This is not the first time I have heard about the failing human gene pool. I remember reading about it in a Creation Ministries journal some years ago. And from a biblical perspective it makes sense. Adam was essentially the perfectly crafted human being, and even after the fall he had a supremely long life. Eve as well. But as we go down Adam’s lineage in the book of Genesis we see that long life declining. By the time we get to the days of the Exodus of Israel out of Egypt the human lifespan had settled at a similar age as we have today, around 80 years (Ps. 90:10). But even this age is remarkable, when you think about it, because the ancient Israelites did not have indoor plumbing and modern medicine. So, considering the age of 70 or 80 years to be relatively normal back then is remarkable. It declined even more in the more recent millennia, only picking up again recently because of modern hygiene and medicine.

In effect Adam was an Numenorean compared to modern human beings. In Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings Numenoreans are the long-lived great men of the north, who have lifespans much longer than the average mortal. But over time their lineage fails and their life spans come down to the norm of other humans.

If you believe the Bible to be telling the truth about the long life-spans of Adam and his near kin, then it stands to reason that the human genome has been degrading over time. It also stands to reason, and appears to be demonstrated by the data, that different social conditions can either hasten this degradation or slow it down. In our day it appears to be degrading at a higher-than-average rate, ironically because of modern society’s ability to reduce infant mortality and extend life, through the aforementioned hygiene and medicine.

This is fascinating to consider and deserves more scientific inquiry. As Vox notes in The Frozen Gene the numbers point to this reality, but it is not fully confirmed. Also the rate at which mutations are building in the human genome is not exactly known. More research should be done.

But what should concern us is that the scientific majority, and society in general, have a worldview that says this should not be happening. So, while there may be scientific means of addressing this, the blinkers of modern science are hampering our ability to face what is very likely actually happening to our species right now.

As a historian I cannot speak to the science with any expertise. But I can note that historically many societies have collapsed because of ideological blind spots. This is a consistent civilisational trend, or should I say dyscivilisational trend. And what is worse is that we may be causing this by the very means that we have used to extend our lifestyle, improve our lifestyles, and build shared prosperity. This is fascinating to consider, and a little horrible as well.

This is a good example of how bad science is not just bad science, it can also be dangerous to human health and progress. All civilisations have blind spots. Many bring great troubles on themselves because of these blind spots. Hopefully, scientists with the ability to address this are paying attention to this matter.

List of References

---

[1] Day, Vox. The Frozen Gene: The End of Human Evolution (The Mathematics of Evolution Book 2) (pp. 369-370). Castalia House. Kindle Edition.

[2] Ibid (pp. 377-378)

[3] Ibid (pp. 378-380).

The Old Sacrificing the Young

 

War is the old sacrificing the young.

The data for who dies in war and who calls for war paints a stark and consistent picture of sacrifice across the last 120 years. While a single, global average age for fallen soldiers over the entire period is not available, the figures from major conflicts are remarkably consistent and paint a clear picture: the young are often sacrificed on the altar of war. Conversely, the political leaders who make the decisions for war are, on average, several decades older, and generally very wealthy. These older leaders general have interested far divergent from these young men who are called upon to lay down their lives.

Here is a breakdown of the available data on the average age of combatants killed in action. We will look World War 1, World War 2, the Korean War, Vietnam war, and the Iraq War, and the average age of combatants killed.

World War I (1914-1918) Varies by nationality:

• ~29 years old (German soldiers)[1]

• ~27 years old (British soldiers from North-West England)

• ~19 years old (British soldiers overall)[2]

The variation highlights different data sets. The 29-year figure comes from autopsies of German soldiers. The 27-year figure is from a regional British study. The striking 19-year average for British soldiers is also cited, underscoring the immense loss of very young men.

World War II (1939-1945) ~26 years old (U.S. soldiers)

This figure is provided for the average age of the U.S. fighting man, though a precise average for those killed is harder to pinpoint.[3] 2.2 million were between 17 and 20.[4]

Korean War (1950-1953) ~17-24 years old (U.S. soldiers).[5]

Vietnam War (1955-1975) ~22 to 23.11 years old (U.S. soldiers)[6]

An academic study gives an average of 22 years. A detailed analysis of the 58,148 U.S. fatalities puts the average at 23.11 years, also noting that 61% were younger than 21.

Iraq and Afghanistan Wars (2001-2011) ~26 years old (U.S. soldiers)

This more recent average is based on a large sample of 3,832 autopsied U.S. soldiers. The increase from Vietnam reflects the all-volunteer force and the inclusion of older service members in support roles.

The Average Age of Political Leaders

Finding a precise, aggregated average age for all national leaders who initiated wars over the last 120 years is a complex task that would require an extensive database. However, the data that is available strongly supports the conclusion that these leaders are consistently and significantly older than the soldiers they send into battle.

• Examples from World War II: The key figures who started World War II were all in their later years. Adolf Hitler was 50, Benito Mussolini was 56, Joseph Stalin was 60, Winston Churchill was 65 and Franklin D. Roosevelt was nearly 60 when the U.S. entered the war.[7] Average lifespans were a bit lower in those days well, FDR was considered quite advanced in age in his day.
• Modern Context: This trend continues in recent conflicts. Leaders involved in decisions for war in the 21st century are often in their 60s, 70s, and even 80s, an age profile made possible by rising life expectancies. The Ayatollah was 86 when he died. Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump are 76 and 79 respectively[8], so in the upper ages of those who start and call for wars.
• Academic Research: Scholarly studies confirm that the age of a leader is a significant factor in international conflict, with some research suggesting that younger leaders may be more prone to initiating disputes, while others indicate that aggression can be found across age ranges. The key takeaway is that leadership is an arena where age, experience and power are concentrated at the highest levels. But not necessarily wisdom.

A Tale of Two Ages

The contrast between the age of the decision-makers and the age of those sent into battle is stark. George Carlin once said that, “War is rich old men protecting their wealth by sending lower and middle-class men off to die.” Nothing we see happening at the moment proves this to be false. As someone has said, the tragedy of war is, first of all, the tragedy of young men. The data shows that the average soldier killed in America's wars of the last 70 years has consistently been in his early to mid-twenties, with a significant portion being teenagers. Teenagers!!!

It should really be illegal to send a man to war before he has had a chance to start his family, and continue his line. We might find that if we did this then society would be built by people who were far pickier at the kind of wars we go into. The Bible had a similar restraint on who could be sent to war, “When a man is newly married, he shall not go out with the army or be liable for any other public duty. He shall be free at home one year to be happy with his wife whom he has taken” (Deut. 24:5). Allowing the wealthy and the powerful to exploit the young so that they can establish or protect their wealth is a terrible evil in this world. How many countries in the West have actually been drawn into war to protect their borders in the last 80 years since World War 2? Virtually all of the wars have been empire wars, far away from their own shores.

This reality is perhaps best summarized by a quote attributed to President Franklin D. Roosevelt, a man who led his nation through a global war in his 60s: "War is young men dying and old men talking."

Don’t fall for the propaganda that we must be involved in this war. Don’t let your son’s fall into the trap of being called far away from their home, into a foreign land. Maybe war will come directly to our shores, then we should defend them, of course. But wars to extend the reach of global powers? No. These are wars that are designed to make the poor suffer to enrichen the already very rich. These are evil.

List of References

---

[1] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5018484/table/T1/

[2] https://www.thenews.com.pk/tns/detail/569321-spoiled-by-war

[3] https://www.studycountry.com/wiki/how-old-was-the-average-us-soldier-in-ww2

[4] https://www.civil-war.net/what-was-the-average-age-of-soldiers-in-ww2/

[5] https://www.answers.com/history-ec/What_was_the_%27average_age%27_of_Korean_War_soldiers

[6] https://www.navytimes.com/opinion/commentary/2020/07/08/raising-the-age-of-military-enlistment/?contentFeatureId=f0fmoahPVC2AbfL-2-1-8&contentQuery=%7B%22includeSections%22%3A%22%2Fhome%22%2C%22excludeSections%22%3A%22%22%2C%22feedSize%22%3A10%2C%22feedOffset%22%3A15%7D

[7] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/old-men-cry-war-young-men-die-part-1/articleshow/122239365.cms

[8] Ibid.