Dear
President Trump, RE: Ukraine
That’s not my
title, that is the title of a blog piece sent to me today, by a friend, that
seeks to lobby President Trump regarding the Ukraine War. Since before this
conflict started I have been doing everything I can to write about why we
should stay out of foolish wars, and most especially what the Scriptures say
about these endeavours. I particularly stepped up writing about wars and
alliances once the Ukrainian war began, because for many years now I have been
advocating that Australia not get involved in foreign wars that are not our
concern. Our country has a bad habit of just following the United States into
all of its conflicts (to date Australia has sent 1.5 billion dollars in aid to Ukraine, which is a provocation of
war against a country that did not attack us, nor could we defend ourselves
against effectively, in a far off region of the world) and I think we should
speak out about this. You can read some of those writings by clicking here.
However,
within the Church there is a strong pro-war lobby group. This group has
particular influence in the United States, but there are Christians in
Australia who would like to see the war with Russia continue, or who at least believe
it is the United States role to subject other foreign powers and use force to
do so. This article from this blog is an example of this philosophy, so I
thought I would respond to it. I don’t know the author, I have only come across
his blog a handful of times. From what I understand this author is a Christian
brother with a genuine faith in Christ, and I have heard good things from
friends about his public views on a host of other issues. So, my issue is not
with him, it is with the position he puts forward in this blog which I have
seen is a common one amongst Australians. This blog just gives me the
opportunity to reply to the presented position in a systematic way.
My intention
with this article is to knockdown the idea that the West should continue the war with Ukraine. So, let’s respond to the blog,
knowing that this is a disagreement with a well commended Christian brother.
“Dear
Mr President,
Congratulations
on your return to the White House. I realise it’s been a long journey for you,
full of twists and turns, let alone attempted assassinations. May God uphold
you in your work.
Like
many people, one of my big hopes for your second presidency is a return to the
relative world stability we had in your first term. The last four years of your
predecessor have been quite chaotic: a disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. The October 7 massacres. And, of course, the
war in Ukraine. I’m hoping and praying you’ll help reduce the chaos and bring
more order to our troubled world, such as the historic Abraham Accords you
helped bring to fruition four years ago.”[1]
Ok, let’s pause
here, because already we find an issue. Because the Abraham Accords did not
bring “order to our troubled world.” Many of those who are well informed on the
issue have the exact opposite view, the Abraham Accords helped pave the way for
this current Middle Eastern conflict,
“It’s
worth noting, that Joe Biden confirmed much of this analysis when he opined on
October 25:
“I’m
convinced one of the reasons Hamas attacked when they did… is because of the
progress we were making towards regional integration for Israel and regional
integration overall… ”
By
“regional integration”, Biden is referring to the Abraham Accords which were
promoted as a way for Arab countries to “normalize” relations with Israel and
“to advance the peace process in the Middle East”. But don’t be fooled by the
hype. The Accords were merely Phase 2 of Trump’s lopsided giveaway to Israel.
As some readers might recall, Phase 1 of Trump’s so called Middle East Peace
Plan “provided for a unified Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and Israeli
sovereignty over the Jordan Valley and the principal Jewish settlements in the
West Bank, amounting to annexation of roughly 30% of the territory. The
Palestinians were given some desert areas near the Egyptian border, limited
sovereignty, and a non-contiguous state with numerous Israeli enclaves…. ”
So,
with a wave of his hand, Trump broke with all of his presidential predecessors,
all the applicable UN Resolutions, and with traditional US foreign policy
dating back five decades. And this was just the beginning because—as we know
now—the Abraham Accords set the dominoes in motion leading inexorably to the
flattening of Gaza and the displacement of two million civilians. As author of
the Accords, Trump is largely responsible for the unfolding catastrophe.”[2]
Even if you
think the Abraham Accords were a good thing, they were clearly still a failure, as has been noted in even in the Israeli media,
“When
the Bahraini and Emirati foreign ministers stood proudly on either side of
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump to sign the
Abraham Accords four years ago, all four men — and their governments — imagined
an era of steadily expanding ties between Israel and the Arab world…
…But
as the men were waxing poetic about the new era that the accords were about to
usher in, events back in Israel foreshadowed how elusive that future would be.”[3]
So, even if
you wholeheartedly agree with what Trump did, you cannot say that these Accords
brought order to the Middle East, or the World. The situation in the Middle
East has deteriorated since their implementation. One may be tempted to blame
Biden for this, but well informed foreign policy experts note that the issues
started to rise straight after the Accords happened. Any proper analysis will
also concede that the Middle East is in worse shape than it was when the
Accords were signed. Perhaps things will change for the better going forward, but if President
Trump is in anyway serious about turning Gaza into a resort, then more war and chaos in the region is a guarantee.
Ok, the blog
goes on to say,
“Mr
President, you came promising to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war. A war
that has decimated Ukrainian cities. A war that has left a trail of widows and
orphans. A war that has brought
destruction into European soil we haven’t seen since World War 2.
We
in the West are hoping it would be a fair and just peace, especially for
Ukraine, which did not ask for this war, let alone start it.”[4]
The idea that
Russia just attacked Ukraine while they were standing by doing nothing, appears
to be a common perspective. Without doubt Russia did invade Ukraine in February
2022, but those who start the history there do a disservice to the full context
of what happened. Russia invaded on behalf of Russian speaking minorities in
the Donbass region, because of stated violations by Ukraine of the Minsk
agreements made between those two countries,
“MOSCOW,
Feb 18 (Reuters) - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov voiced alarm on
Friday over a sharp increase in shelling in eastern Ukraine and accused the
OSCE special monitoring mission of glossing over what he said were Ukrainian
violations of the peace process.
Ukrainian
government forces and pro-Russian separatists have been fighting in the Donbass
region of eastern Ukraine since 2014 in a conflict that Kyiv says has claimed
some 15,000 lives.
Washington
and its allies have raised fears that the upsurge in violence in the Donbass
could form part of a Russian pretext to invade Ukraine. Tensions are already
high over a Russian military buildup to the north, east and south of Ukraine.”[5]
The blog post
we are reviewing asserts that Ukraine did not ask for this war. But the history
of the events says otherwise. They massively increased the shelling in the
Donbass region, something that is even affirmed by the American pro-Ukrainian
media, and Russia saw this as a violation of the treaty between itself and
Ukraine. We also know, because of the analysis of foreign policy experts like
John Mearsheimer, Jeffrey Sachs and Colonel MacGregor, and others, that Russia
went to war not just on behalf of the Donbass militias, but also in response to
the continued encroachment of NATO towards their borders.
We all know
that America would never tolerate China or Russia putting military assets or
signing military treaties with countries on its border. It is beyond credulity
to think Russia would ever be ok with it either. We also know that
this conflict was in part provoked because America wanted to weaken Russia
through its proxy, Ukraine. A long time US strategy. This is why the US
continued to increase military and other aid to Ukraine, rather than work for
peace previously,
“At
a news conference in Poland after the visit, Mr Austin told reporters the US
wants to see "Russia weakened to the degree that it can't do the kinds of
things that it has done in invading Ukraine".
The
Pentagon chief added that US officials still believed Ukraine could win the
conflict with "the right equipment" and the "right
support".
BBC
diplomatic correspondent James Landale observed that Mr Austin's comments
calling for a weakened Russia were unusually strong for a US defence secretary.
It is one thing to help Ukraine resist Russian aggression, it is quite another
to speak of weakening Russia's capabilities, he said.”[6]
There was
clearly much more going on with this conflict than simply a resurgent Russia
seeking to extend its boundaries. To act like this conflict just came upon an
unsuspecting Ukraine out of the blue is ahistorical. Why do you think the
American Congress sought to impeach President Trump in his first term for
delaying weapons shipments to Ukraine? They were preparing for this conflict
for some time. Trump knew this and has long stated that if he was in charge of
the US the war would never have happened, indicating that America was a key
player in starting the war.
Next the blog
states,
“But
your recent words and actions make me nervous for Ukraine and world stability.
While I applaud your desire to end this horrible war, you seem happy to do it
at Ukrainian expense. I know Putin would probably end this war if you gave him
much of what he wanted. Looking on, it seems you want peace at any cost –
especially to Ukraine.
But,
Mr President, the Bible says yes, there is a time for peace. But there’s also a
time for war.
While
we all yearn for peace, sometimes war is the only way to defeat evil and bring
that just and lasting peace.”[7]
I don’t think
many commentators realise just what has happened with this war. Russia is not
just holding its own against Ukraine, the United States, and the combined
forces of much of Western and Eastern Europe, it is winning. Handedly. Trump is
not suing for peace just for the sake of peace, these are surrender
negotiations. Putin holds all the cards in this situation.
This has been
known for sometime,
“Ukraine
is now experiencing a level of existential threat comparable only to the
situation immediately after the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022.
But in contrast to then, improvements are unlikely – at least not soon.
Not
only have conditions along the frontline significantly worsened, according to
the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrsky, but the very possibility of
a Ukrainian defeat is now discussed in public by people like the former
commander of the UK’s Joint Forces Command, General Sir Richard Barrons.
Barrons
told the BBC on April 13 that Ukraine could lose the war in 2024 “because
Ukraine may come to feel it can’t win … And when it gets to that point, why
will people want to fight and die any longer, just to defend the indefensible?”
This
may be his way of trying to push the west to provide more military aid to
Ukraine faster. Yet the fact that the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg,
publicly accepts that to end the war Ukraine will have to negotiate with Russia
and decide “what kind of compromises they’re willing to do” is a clear
indication that things are not going well for Ukraine.”[8]
This piece is from early 2024.
For the past
50 odd years Europe, Britain, Australia and the United States, along with other
western countries, have been progressively moving our manufacturing overseas,
particularly to Asia, but also to other developing countries. This has gutted
the West’s ability to manufacture anything it relies on, including military
equipment. Russia, China and many other countries have not only benefitted from
this, when the US put sanctions on Russia they actually strengthened their
economy because they have been preparing their country to make locally what they need
for some time,
“…Russia’s
economy has been resilient to western sanctions and seen growth driven by the
war. On top of deliveries from Iran and North Korea dual-use technology,
including electrical components and machine tools for arms manufacture, has
been supplied by China.”[9]
The chickens
are coming home to roost for all the environmentalist propaganda and
irresponsible offshoring of manufacturing that has happened for some time now
in the West. The Western powers have now been shown that we are effectively
underdeveloped and the combined might of the manufacturing capabilities of
Russia and its allies, especially China, are at a level we cannot compete with
anymore. Russia and the USA beat Germany in World War 2 because they both had
larger populations and more powerful industrial bases. Well, the United States
has gutted its manufacturing base for decades now, and the result is that it
cannot produce enough to help Ukraine, a militarily very strong country, beat Russia,
a manufacturing power with an even stronger military. The centre of gravity of world power has shifted. Trump knows it. The western world is only slowly recognizing
this.
The blog then
notes,
“Your
great nation knows this well. It was American soldiers who fought the war that
pushed Hitler’s armies back to Berlin. It was American soldiers who fought the
war that brought an end to the Japanese empire. If the world was to see peace,
your nation knew that the early 1940s was a time for war. God knows where we would be now if they
decided otherwise.”[10]
America is
not the manufacturing power it was in the 1940’s. It is not the same country it
was then in many ways. It cannot face great powers and guarantee it could come out
on top, like it once did. But note this, America beat Germany with the help of
which ally? Soviet Russia, which did the vast majority of the land-based
fighting on the eastern front. What major power has the United States beat on
the battlefield in its own right in a hundred years? Japan. But what other? The US contributed
massively in the two World Wars, particularly in the second world war and
especially against Japan, but in Europe Russia did the bulk of the fighting. And Japan was a sea power, not a land power.
The US has held onto its heavy weight fighting championship belt since then by only
fighting lightweights since WW2 (Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, twice, etc), and even
many of the those wars it has lost.
Next our
blogger notes,
“At
other times, the mere threat of war can bring peace.
Whether
it was President Clinton threatening force to bring a genocidal Bosnian Serb
regime to the negotiating table in the mid-1990s. Or you threatening to bomb
Putin in your first term if he invaded Ukraine. (Putin says that if you were
President at the time he would not have invaded Ukraine). Or your threat of
unleashing ‘all hell’ on Hamas if they didn’t return the hostages, which many
Arab observers credit with helping bring Hamas to the negotiating table.
Sometimes,
the threat of force, especially from you, is the only thing that the likes of
Putin, Hamas, and many a dictator will heed.
And
so, Mr President, I humbly believe you have options.”[11]
While I agree
on principle that presenting a threatening military stance and backing it up
with one of the most powerful militaries in the world can help maintain peace -
the peace through strength strategy - this writer is uninformed about what actually
happened in Gaza. Trump did not need to put pressure on Hamas for negotiations
to happen, but on Netanyahu. As the Israeli Newspaper Haaretz notes,
“Wednesday
night, Channel 12 News' Yaron Avraham, presented a comprehensive report
detailing all of the hostage negotiation deals that have been proposed since
November, when the last, and only, successful exchange took place.
Presented
as a detailed timeline of the last 11 months, the investigation includes
never-before-seen documents and previously unheard conversations which
highlight Netanyahu's relentless attempts to "Torpedo the Deal," as
the segment is titled.”[12]
It has long
been reported in the Israeli news that Netanyahu was blocking any hostage
deals. Trump did force the ceasefire, but he did it by putting pressure on
Israel.
Even when it
comes to Ukraine in Trump’s first term, remember Trump was brining pressure on
the Europeans at the time, and, as we already noted, he stopped a weapons
shipment to Ukraine. The idea that he was standing in the way of Putin and that
this was stopping the war, does not take this into account. He was holding back
western forces that were giving assurances to Ukraine and that were intent on
provoking Russia. The fact that peace talks have begun with his second
presidency shows that this reading of events makes the most sense.
This next
part of his blog makes me wonder how much attention this blogger and many Australian
Christians have paid to the war. Do people not realize how much war technology has shifted
in the last decade?
“On
the one hand, you could continue giving major concessions to Putin at Ukraine’s
expense, Demanding little from him and much from Ukraine. Yes, It might end the
war and bring peace - for a little while.
However,
the testimony of history through events like Munich 1938 is that dictators like
Putin become emboldened by such major concessions. They smell blood. They end up demanding more, not less. They
see concession as weakness, not strength. And they feel confident to push the
boundaries – if not immediately, then soon after. And we’ve yet to mention
whether such a peace is just.
On
the other hand, Mr President, you could do what you did before: threaten
escalation. After all, it worked before with Putin, as you have said. Threaten to send a Naval carrier group or two
to the Black Sea. Threaten to send a few squadrons of USAF fighters to control
the skies of Ukraine on and off the battlefield. Russia can barely move forward
against Ukraine (which has no control of its skies) despite a massive advantage
in manpower. Could you imagine what
Ukraine could do if American aircraft controlled the air?
(Russian
Generals know it, and Putin knows it: such American air power would decimate
Russian forces.)
Such
threats of escalation would help bring de-escalation. The threat of war will
help bring peace. It would send a signal to Putin and other regimes that
America won’t tolerate her allies being invaded and abused.
You
could help bring order to our chaotic world. You could help bring peace,
through strength.”[13]
Russia
quickly neutralized Ukraine’s air power early in the war with its anti-aircraft
missile systems, the famous S-400 and S-500 systems. The blog we are reviewing even notes that
Ukraine has no control over the skies. This is why. These systems effectively
make it suicide for fighters and bombers to take to the skies over the
battlefield. These systems also neutralize one of the United State’s greatest
former advantages, the Aircraft carrier group. Why do you think the United
States has not done just as this blogger asks? They know that they cannot be
assured victory in the skies or sea anymore.
Such a threat
from Trump to bring in the navy would not worry Putin at all. For one, Navy
carrier groups cannot defeat highly advanced and mobilized land-based
militaries with superior air defence and endless missile stocks. It would be
like attacking a 17th century fort with an old cannon armed frigate; suicidal. The day of the fighter controlling the skies is over. Russia, China
and many other powers now have the ability to control the skies with
anti-aircraft systems that are far easier to make, and far cheaper, than
fighters or bombers. And they are many multiple millions of dollars cheaper
than building aircraft carriers. This person does not know what they are
asking. Russia is an advanced industrial power that can produce advanced
missiles quickly, and far cheaper, than the US can produce planes to replace
the ones shot down by those missiles. The math just is not on their side.
America has
sent billions to Ukraine in equipment, training, aid and even reported manpower
at times (for “training purposes” of course…) and still Russia is winning. Why
it has not advanced further could be explained by Putin’s lack of desire to
conquer all of Ukraine, because he has seen what happened to the US when it
tried to hold Afghanistan and Iraq, rather than by an inability of Russia to do
so. Though we are only assuming here. However, we are not assuming when we say
that Russia has beaten Ukraine, how far they go will depend on how far the US
and Europe will push the issue.
Our writer finishes
with this admonition,
“Mr
President, there is a time for peace. But also a time for war.
I’ll
be praying for your decision.”[14]
Pray that
Trump is able to get the peace Europe and Ukraine need. Russia holds all the
cards. It is obvious much of the West does not recognize this yet. But many of
us do. The West has been weakening itself with bad foreign policy, environmental ideology and offshoring
decisions for decades. These bad policies are now all coming back to roost.
Ukraine, and by virtue of their aid also the US, and Europe, have lost. The
sooner they admit defeat the sooner they can save lives all around. Praise be
to God, it appears that President Trump knows this. Pray he is successful in
bringing peace.
List of
References
[1]
Akos Baologh, Dear President Trump, RE: Ukraine, https://www.akosbalogh.com/blog/dear-president-trump-re-ukraine?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR3czwnwxHWGOBdpC6XD-lgDouKHrkCTtGr6jutoUuSFZ5-NOb5DPgRT4k8_aem_bX8sL1_jE2vvOUrZ_Yx70w
[2]
Mike Whitney, 2025, https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-primary-cause-of-october-7-was-donald-trump-heres-the-proof/
[3] Lazar
Berman, 2024, https://www.timesofisrael.com/four-years-on-abraham-accords-are-strained-by-gaza-war-but-prove-resilient/
[4] Akos
Baologh, Dear President Trump, RE: Ukraine, https://www.akosbalogh.com/blog/dear-president-trump-re-ukraine?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR3czwnwxHWGOBdpC6XD-lgDouKHrkCTtGr6jutoUuSFZ5-NOb5DPgRT4k8_aem_bX8sL1_jE2vvOUrZ_Yx70w
[5] Reuters,
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-sharp-increase-shelling-donbass-is-alarming-2022-02-18/
[6] Matt
Murphy, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61214176
[8]
Stefan Wolff and Tetyana Malyarenko, 2024, https://theconversation.com/ukraine-is-losing-the-war-and-the-west-faces-a-stark-choice-help-now-or-face-a-resurgent-and-aggressive-russia-227875
[9]
Ibid.
[12]
Rachel Fink, 2024, https://archive.md/ysGm4#selection-927.0-935.244
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