In May 2022 something remarkable happened. The United
States military bravely used their resources to land emergency supplies of baby
formula on their shores to plug a gap in their own food supply chain.[1]
America had run out of baby formula and their military bravely came to the
rescue, or so their commander in chief would frame it. The correct way to view
this is that America is in trouble. Not just America, really every country that
is reliant on the American-centric vast, intricate, supply chain network to supply
it with basic products, is in trouble.[2]
We are watching something happen in real time that
most of us had only read about in history books: the collapse of the
international supply chain. This is an interesting and frightening thing to
observe in real time, because it was utterly predictable, and it appeared
either no one in power was interested in avoiding this, or that they were
deliberately seeking to make this happen. You cannot shut down the supply chain
again and again and again, and expect it to always come back online because each
shut down does different damage.
Think of the international supply chain like a drunk
man in the pub with a thick skull. He can take a bunch of punches and get back
up after them several times. He can show an insanely high level of resilience
to each punch. But each punch is doing damage, and eventually it is too much.
Shutting down the supply chain in one area, say place A, may be intended to be
temporary, but in place D they were waiting on products from place B and C,
that used the supplies from place A to keep their business going. If place A
shuts down for too long, or too many times, then place D suffers and goes out
of business. Places B and C now start to struggle. They may be able to sell to
places E and F, and make up the business they lost from place D. But places E,
and F were waiting on supplies from place G, which is also shut down. The many
redundancies give the system resilience, but eventually they break and the
complexity of the system means there is no easy fix. You can understand the problem.
The advantage of a
highly complex system of trade and supply is that it is resilient. But this
resilience becomes fragility when too many points are broken. Because of the
highly specialized nature of our supply chain today, with country 1
specializing in making say steel, and country 2 in making silicone chips, and
countries 3-7 not really making anything but purple haired gender studies
majors, eventually this all breaks apart. If too many of these supply chains
are broken, the whole system begins to suffer, which leads to supply shortages,
inflationary pressure on prices, and cascading system collapse.
I have been following this since the beginning of the
pandemic in 2020 out of interest, and a little bit of concern. The reason being
that a few years ago I read a fascinating book titled: 1177 B.C. The Year
Civilization Collapsed by Eric H. Cline. My title of this piece is a
deliberate riff off of that book. Kline’s work is a brilliant examination of
the time civilisation fell, that many people are not aware of, even though it
is etched in our cultural memory. This is the era that gave us the Iliad
and the Odyssey, the Aeneid, and the introduction of the
Palestinians (Philistines) into Canaan. Many of Europe’s ancient ideas and
myths originate from the time before the 12th century. Tales of
Hercules, Jason and the Argonauts, the Minitour of Crete and more. This was the
era when Egypt was still the greatest civilisation in the World. This is also
the era where that came to an end. Egypt survived the collapse of the Bronze
Age civilisation, but it was never quite the same again.
The reason this is all relevant, and not just
interesting, is because, just like our civilisation, the civilisation of the
Mediterranean world in this era was incredibly complex. We tend to think of the
ancient world as being very primitive and disconnected. But there were vast
trading networks within the Mediterranean and beyond. Some anthropologists and
historians posit that even the Americas were within reach of this Mediterranean
civilisation. The discovery of tobacco in Ancient Egyptian mummies would seem
to suggest this is true.[3]
The fact that genetic discoveries show that up to 70%
of British men are related to the Egyptian Pharoah Tutankhamun again highlights
that ancient people were more connected than we generally think.[4]
Some historians present the history of Europe as if Briton was this dark land
shrouded in mystery until Julius Caesar took the Romans there and encountered
the Britons. But remember you can travel across the channel in a dinghy today,
in calm weather some people even swim across[5],
and you can see the coast of France from the coastline in the South East of
England. It is also well-known that the Pre-Roman Brits traded with the Gaul’s
on the mainland of Europe.[6]
Cline shows that before the collapse of the Bronze Age
civilisation around 1200 B.C., the Mediterranean civilisation was an intricate,
interconnected and complex system, with specialization in industry in different
cities and regions, embassies spread across the region, a trade tongue or
lingua franca, and multicultural communities in every area of the civilisation.
We even see in the Bible that there were colonies of Philistines in the land of
Canaan, long before we know that the sea peoples called the ‘Peleset’ or
Philistines moved into the area as permanent settlers.[7]
These were likely earlier groups of traders and migrants in the area, who were
there long before the major migration of the sea peoples.
There is evidence of interconnected trade between
Minoa and Mesopotamia (the region of Sumer, Akkad, Assyria, Babylon and Persia).[8]
And not just Minoa either, “The archives
included records of trade and contact with other areas of the Mediterranean and
Near East, with specific mention of unusual items that were received.”[9]
A fascinating example is that of a dagger and clothing “made in the Caphtorian
manner”, that is from Crete,[10]
which is where the Philistines came from.[11]
Kings even exchanged gifts with each other across these long distances,
“…Zimri-Lim,
the king of Mari, sent a pair of Minoan shoes from Crete as a gift to King
Hammurabi of Babylon. The text says simply, “One pair of leather shoes in the
Caphtorian style, which to the palace of Hammurabi, King of Babylon, Bahdi-Lim
(an official) carried, but which were returned.”[12]
There was even ancient re-gifting!
These gifts were
brought directly to the king by emissaries in what would today be called a
diplomatic embassy. Such was the level of intricate connection between these
ancient societies, something many people do not often thing about. We think of
the Classical Greek or Roman society as being intricately connected, but so was
this ancient Bronze Age society. So many other examples could be given.
“We must keep
in mind that the goods mentioned above represent only a tiny portion of those
that once crossed the Mediterranean Sea, for many of the goods traded during
the Late Bronze Age were perishable and would be unlikely to leave much in the
way of identifiable remains today. Grain, wine, spices, perfumes, wood, and
textiles almost certainly have long since disappeared. Raw materials such as
ivory, precious stones like lapis lazuli, agate, and carnelian, and metals such
as gold, copper, and tin will also have been locally converted long ago into
other objects such as weapons and jewelry. Thus, the most abundant signposts of
the trade routes and of international contacts may have perished,
disintegrated, or otherwise disappeared in antiquity. However, the existence of
perishable trade goods can sometimes be identified in written texts or by
depiction in wall paintings that have survived to the present.”[13]
15th century tombs in Egypt show Aegean
(proto-Greek) people, and Minoan people, along with others.[14]
These same inscriptions show them carrying their trade goods and gifts. Perhaps
the most incredible example of all of this interconnectedness, is the discovery
that British tin may have been used in the construction of the temple of
Israel, which was built after these trade networks collapsed.[15]
This was a vast and complex interconnected civilisation stretching over large areas
of the ancient world. We even see similarities in the concepts of the gods from
Babylon to Egypt, to Greece on and up to the Norsemen of Northern Europe.
Then in 1177 B.C. this entire civilisation collapsed,
so thoroughly, it appeared as if those civilizations had entirely abandoned the
region. Cities like Troy and the Hittite Empire disappeared so thoroughly they were
considered myths and legends. For a long time historians believed that a
mysterious people, originating from somewhere in the Mediterranean, the Sea
Peoples, were responsible for this destruction. And in part this is correct,
they caused much destruction and even threatened Egypt for a time, before being
defeated by that ancient Empire:
“In 1177 BC,
as previously in 1207 BC, the Egyptians were victorious. The Sea Peoples would
not return to Egypt a third time. Ramses boasted that the enemy were “capsized
and overwhelmed in their places.” “Their hearts,” he wrote, “are taken away;
their soul is flown away. Their weapons are scattered in the sea.” However, it
was a Pyrrhic victory. Although Egypt under Ramses III was the only major power
to successfully resist the onslaught of the Sea Peoples, New Kingdom Egypt was
never the same again afterward, most likely because of the other problems faced
by the entire Mediterranean region during this period, as we shall see below.
The succeeding pharaohs, for the rest of the second millennium BC, were content
to rule over a country much diminished in influence and power. Egypt became a
second-rate empire; a mere shadow of what it had once been. It was not until
the days of Pharaoh Shoshenq, a Libyan who founded the Twenty-Second Dynasty
ca. 945 BC—and who is probably to be identified as Pharaoh Shishak of the
Hebrew Bible—that Egypt rose to a semblance of prominence again.”[16]
Egypt had defeated these invaders, but it had suffered
greatly from their attacks. But so did the entire region.
“Beyond
Egypt, almost all of the other countries and powers of the second millennium BC
in the Aegean and Near East—those that had been present during the golden years
of what we now call the Late Bronze Age—withered and disappeared, either
immediately or within less than a century. In the end, it was as if
civilization itself had been wiped away in much of this region. Many, if not
all, of the advances of the previous centuries vanished across great swaths of
territory, from Greece to Mesopotamia. A new transitional era began: an age
that was to last for at least one century and perhaps as many as three in some
areas.”[17]
An entire advanced civilisation, not too dissimilar to
ours in the way that its various nations interacted with each other,
disappeared so thoroughly it was as if for many that it had never existed. Still
many people in the modern era are shocked to learn about it. The ancient world
went from interconnected and inter-reliant to scatterings of small and backward
city states across the same region. But were the Sea Peoples the only cause of
this collapse? No.
“Moreover,
while we do not know for certain the cause, or all the causes, of the collapse
of the Bronze Age world in Greece, Egypt, and the Near East, the weight of
contemporary evidence suggests that it was probably not the Sea Peoples alone
who were to blame. It now seems likely that they were as much the victims as
they were the aggressors in the collapse of civilizations. One hypothesis
suggests that they were forced out of their homes by a series of unfortunate
events and migrated eastward where they encountered kingdoms and empires
already in decline. It is also quite possible that they were able to attack and
ultimately vanquish many of the kingdoms of the region precisely because those
monarchies were already in decline and in a weakened state. In this context,
the Sea Peoples might perhaps be considered simply opportunistic, as one
scholar has called them, and might have settled down in the Eastern
Mediterranean much more peacefully than has previously been assumed."[18]
The Sea Peoples were likely a result of, and also took
advantage of, system wide cascade failure. That is, the Bronze Age civilisation
had fractured so badly, that it collapsed on its own weight, and then migratory
peoples were able to exploit these weaknesses.
“In our
current view, as we shall see below, the Sea Peoples may well have been responsible
for some of the destruction that occurred at the end of the Late Bronze Age,
but it is much more likely that a concatenation of events, both human and
natural—including climate change and drought, seismic disasters known as
earthquake storms, internal rebellions, and “systems collapse”—coalesced to
create a “perfect storm” that brought this age to an end.”[19]
The Bronze Age civilisation of the ancient
Mediterranean was a remarkable achievement of human connectedness and society,
but it fell, and spectacularly. The more complex a civilisation becomes, the
wealthier its members can also become. But the more complex it gets the more
fragile it becomes as well. All of those things which made this civilisation
strong, also made it vulnerable to collapse, such as specialization of
industry, international trade of goods, local specialties in skills and
products and more. Once the trade networks broke, an entire civilisation came
to an end in roughly 1177 B.C.
So how is this relevant to today?
Well for the last two years supply chains have been
cracking very badly, and in 2021 it became clear that this is not a temporary
thing, indeed the continued disintegration of supply chains has reinforced this.
Here are just a smattering of the articles I have read on this issue:
“Fears
grow as UK factories hit by worst supply chain shortages since mid-70s”[20]
“Inside
America's broken supply chain.”[21]
“The
commercial pipeline that each year brings $1 trillion worth of toys, clothing,
electronics and furniture from Asia to the United States is clogged and no one
knows how to unclog it.”[22]
“Toyota
customers will be waiting up to 10 months for its most popular models. Here is
the latest forecast as the global semiconductor crisis goes from bad to worse.”[23]
“It’s
likely that if you are reading these words on this website, you already know
how hard it can be to get your hands on the new consoles. Well, I’ve got some
bad news straight from Xbox VP of gaming Phil Spencer: Finding a console ain’t
getting easier anytime soon.”[24]
“Growth
in the global market for cars and SUVs will slow in the second half of 2021
after the initial spurt to celebrate recovery from the coronavirus lockdown,
but sales in the rest of the decade will suffer initially from chip shortages while
the second half will be disrupted by a lack of batteries for electric cars.”[25]
“Chinese
antimony prices rose sharply to a seven-year high today as a shortage in
concentrate feedstock supplies showed no signs of easing.”[26]
“Our
customers are currently experiencing high prices and a low supply of
aluminium.”[27]
“Global
shortage in computer chips 'reaches crisis point' Consumer price rises loom
while dearth of semiconductors slow production from Samsung to Ford.”[28]
“‘We’re
sorry’: Toyota Australia apologises, outlines lengthy delays as stock crisis
worsens. Toyota customers will be waiting up to 10 months for its most popular
models. Here is the latest forecast as the global semiconductor crisis goes
from bad to worse.”[29]
“Store
shelves are empty again, and COVID is only part of the reason.”[30]
“Rising
fertiliser and energy prices could hit Aussie supermarkets hard. A crisis with
unprecedented consequences is likely to hit Australia with shoppers being
forced to make difficult decisions as prices skyrocket.”[31]
“One of
the car industry's biggest computer chip suppliers has warned that a major fire
at one of its factories in Japan could have a "massive impact" on its
ability to fulfil orders.”[32]
“My
prediction is that nothing is going to change and the shipping crisis is only
going to get worse. Nobody in the supply chain wants to pay to solve the
problem. They literally just won’t pay to solve the problem.”[33]
“2022
Ford Explorer, F-150 Among Vehicles Waiting For Chips…Currently, Ford has
around 53,000 vehicles that are awaiting chips, which is a significant number
by any measure.”[34]
“Indianapolis — Enough specialty infant formula
for more than half a million baby bottles arrived Sunday in Indianapolis, the
first of several flights carrying infant formula from Europe expected this
weekend to relieve the deepening shortage in the U.S.”[35]
“Almost 25% of all container ships in service are
currently stuck in traffic. Most are waiting to enter crowded ports and around
30 percent of ships are stuck off China's coasts. This is mainly due to the
country's strict Covid policy.”[36]
“Why vegetables are missing from shelves and when
you’ll see them back again. If you’ve noticed gaps in the grocery aisles, it’s
not going to get better any time soon. Woolworths has issued a grim warning
about prolonged shortages across a range of foods.”[37]
Many more articles like this could be referenced and
linked. Why have I put this long list of articles here? Because I have been
following this for a couple of years now. Indeed, I have been expecting to see
something like this in our life-time for a while now, simply because our
civilisation has been in decline for some time. You could argue the decline of
the West began with World War 2, or even earlier with the first World War, or
maybe a little later with the final bloom of the Anglo-American Empire, an extension
of Europe, in the mid-twentieth century. The West once extended its power at
will over any nation in the world it so desired. But in the last 50 or 60 years
it has lost wars to a succession of lower end, even third world, powers showing
that either the rest of the world is catching up, or the West is slipping, and
the fractures in the West show it is a combination of both. This is all now finally
coming to a head.
I can imagine that as the Bronze Age civilisation
began to fall couriers carried the ancient equivalent of these news bulletins
all over the place warning about problems in the supply chain, about production lines going
dormant, or not being able to get supplies, or many other issues. Until finally
they stopped coming, and then the fall of these societies set in.
Are things going to get better? Maybe, but nothing in
all of this shows that this is about to happen. What were supply shortages that
were supposed to last into 2021 are now worsening in 2022, and are being
predicted to go on for many years now. As one article notes above, these
shortages could extend for the next decade in certain areas of manufacturing.
Our civilisation is beginning to crack, these cracks
really ramped up in 2021, and our leaders have not the wherewithal to turn this
around. Do Biden, Albanese, Johnson, Macron and co. seem like the kind of statesmen
that can rebuild our civilisation? Of course not. There are interesting times
ahead. I hope you are learning to grow, build and develop strong local
communities, because there’s a good chance such skills will be necessary.
List of References -
[2] Ironically,
America had for some time previous to this point produced all of its baby
powder locally, but local manufacturing issues and regulations had ground this
production to a halt.
[7]
C.f. Genesis 21:25-34.
[8] Cline,
Eric H.. 1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed (Turning Points in Ancient
History) (p. 18). Princeton University Press. Kindle Edition.
[11] Genesis 10:14, Jeremiah 47:4, Amos
9:7.
[12] Cline,
Eric H.. 1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed (Turning Points in Ancient
History) (p. 19). Princeton University Press. Kindle Edition.
[16]
Cline, Eric H.. 1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed (Turning Points in
Ancient History) (p. 9). Princeton University Press. Kindle Edition.
